Warning of War
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GEOPOLITICAL & SUPPLY-CHAIN RISK INTELLIGENCE

The world's supply chain,
risk-priced around the clock.

An AI analyst reads open-source news, sanctions filings, and energy & commodity reporting — then decomposes risk across four sectors (maritime, energy, commodities, macro) for every region the enterprise touches.

Global Composite
62
◆ no change
High · 0–100 composite
Choke Points
9
Hormuz · Suez · Malacca · …
Headlines / Run
175
avg 76% AI confidence
GLOBAL SECTOR HEATMAP · 1–10
  • Maritime 6.1/10
  • Energy 6.6/10
  • Commodities 5.4/10
  • Macro 6.4/10
View regional briefs Maritime hub Choke points
150°W 90°W 30°W 30°E 90°E 150°E 60°N 30°N 0° 30°S 60°S

REGIONAL BRIEFS

Seven regions. Four sector axes. One composite.

Each region briefed for maritime logistics, energy markets, commodities, and macroeconomic impact — with a 0–100 composite, executive brief, and curated business-grade sources for deeper reading.

REGION · 01

Europe

High
66/100
High
CONFIDENCE 74%
+1 vs last week
  • Maritime 7
  • Energy 7
  • Commodities 5
  • Macro 7

Europe's risk profile is elevated across maritime, energy, and macroeconomic sectors, driven by the seizure of a Russian oil tanker in the English Channel, the ongoing EU sanctions escalation against Russia, and ECB rate tightening in response to Iran-linked inflation pressures. The prospective US-Iran deal and potential European sanctions relief on Iran introduce a dual dynamic: near-term energy price relief via Hormuz reopening, offset by residual uncertainty in the EU-Russia sanctions trajectory. Capital allocation decisions in European markets will be shaped in the next 30–90 days by the pace of ECB policy transmission, the Iran sanctions unwinding timeline, and the durability of EU-Russia enforcement posture.

LATEST SIGNALS · OPEN-SOURCE INPUTS
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REGION · 02

Middle East

High
67/100
High
CONFIDENCE 74%
-10 vs last week
  • Maritime 8
  • Energy 7
  • Commodities 5
  • Macro 6

A US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been announced, with President Trump declaring the Strait of Hormuz reopened; however, vessel trackers and Iran's own statements indicate traffic remains suppressed and the deal's durability is unconfirmed. Oil prices have fallen 4–5% on deal optimism, though physical supply recovery will lag diplomatic progress as operators await verified safe-passage conditions. European powers (UK, France, Germany, Italy) have signalled readiness to lift Iran sanctions contingent on MoU adherence, introducing a potential structural shift in Iranian crude and LNG access to global markets.

LATEST SIGNALS · OPEN-SOURCE INPUTS
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REGION · 03

North America

Elevated
54/100
Elevated
CONFIDENCE 74%
-7 vs last week
  • Maritime 4
  • Energy 6
  • Commodities 5
  • Macro 7

A prospective US-Iran nuclear and sanctions agreement — including an oil sanctions waiver and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — is the dominant near-term event affecting North American energy pricing and crude supply dynamics. USMCA renegotiation uncertainty continues to weigh on cross-border trade flows and agricultural commodity planning, with the US administration signalling a preference to bypass congressional ratification. The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains moderately resilient, though tariff complexity, Canada's strategic reorientation toward Europe, and AI-sector regulatory friction introduce layered capital allocation headwinds.

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REGION · 04

South America

High
62/100
High
CONFIDENCE 74%
-6 vs last week
  • Maritime 5
  • Energy 7
  • Commodities 6
  • Macro 7

South America's risk profile this cycle is dominated by the Venezuela energy investment pivot, with US institutional capital mobilising toward Venezuelan oil assets under a Trump-endorsed $100bn framework, creating both opportunity and sanction-transition uncertainty. Argentina's export surge (+78%) and a China-led trade reorientation signal meaningful macro shifts in Southern Cone trade flows, while a Trinidad & Tobago-Venezuela oil spill probe introduces near-term maritime and environmental compliance risk in the eastern Caribbean corridor. Guyana's oil sector continues to attract structured service partnerships, reinforcing its status as the region's most stable upstream growth node.

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REGION · 05

Asia

Elevated
50/100
Elevated
CONFIDENCE 78%
-20 vs last week
  • Maritime 5
  • Energy 5
  • Commodities 4
  • Macro 6

A US-Iran peace accord, including the announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is the dominant market-moving event for Asia this cycle, driving sharp oil price declines, Indian rupee appreciation, and a three-year high in the Chinese yuan against the dollar. India stands to benefit materially through reduced import costs, improved trade balance optics, and renewed portfolio inflows, while China's PBOC is simultaneously injecting 600 billion yuan in liquidity to sustain domestic credit conditions. Residual maritime risk persists via Chinese naval activity around Taiwan, and South Korea faces technology supply-chain pressure from emerging AI-related export controls.

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REGION · 06

Africa

High
68/100
High
CONFIDENCE 78%
+9 vs last week
  • Maritime 7
  • Energy 7
  • Commodities 7
  • Macro 6

Africa's energy and commodities sectors face a compound of structural production constraints and external trade-route pressure, with Nigeria's oil output underperformance, DRC and Mali mining reform cycles, and Suez Canal fee escalation driven by Strait of Hormuz disruption presenting the most material near-term commercial exposures. The Dangote refinery's growing crude intake is meaningfully reshaping regional oil trade flows and domestic price dynamics. South Africa's mining sector regulatory friction and Niger's re-engagement with IMF credit facilities add further macroeconomic texture to the continental risk profile.

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REGION · 07

Pacific

High
66/100
High
CONFIDENCE 78%
+12 vs last week
  • Maritime 7
  • Energy 7
  • Commodities 6
  • Macro 6

Australia's Pacific risk profile is elevated across multiple sectors this cycle, driven by a pending Ichthys LNG industrial action, accelerating AUKUS naval infrastructure realignment at Port Kembla, and a growing strategic assessment of China's capacity to threaten Australian trade routes and critical infrastructure. Iron ore pricing is receiving support from both Australian supply-side uncertainty and the tentative US-Iran diplomatic development, while ExxonMobil's reported interest in Woodside Energy signals potential consolidation pressure in Australia's upstream LNG sector.

LATEST SIGNALS · OPEN-SOURCE INPUTS
TOP 5 SOURCES
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METHODOLOGY

How each brief is generated.

01

Ingest

Region-specific RSS feeds — business desks, energy & commodity trackers, sanctions filings, sector regulators — pulled every three hours. Sports and entertainment noise filtered before scoring.

02

Decompose

A language model under a strict brand-safety prompt decomposes signal into four sector axes: maritime logistics, energy markets, commodities & raw materials, and macroeconomic impact. No casualty references, no alarm framing.

03

Score

Each axis is scored 1–10. A weighted blend (maritime + energy heaviest) produces the 0–100 composite. Choke points are scored separately with a bundled maritime call.

04

Publish

Executive brief, sector impact panels, disruption events, and 30–90 day forward outlook are published per region. Sector and choke-point dashboards aggregate the same signal cross-regionally.

Read the full methodology

Important: Warning of War provides AI-generated risk intelligence from public open-source data. Output is informational only — not investment advice, official assessment, or operational guidance. Always consult primary sources and qualified analysts before any commercial decision.