Energy Deep Dive

The Strait of Hormuz closure is the dominant supply-side shock this cycle: Iraq is routing incremental barrels via Kirkuk–Ceyhan to Turkey's Mediterranean coast, while Kharg Island saw its first VLCC call in nearly a month, signalling partial Iranian export resumption under ceasefire fragility. WTI and Brent are pressing toward USD 100/bbl on US inventory drawdown and Iran-Gulf tensions. Russia–Saudi rapprochement is reshaping OPEC+ quota architecture as the UAE exits the bloc. US Secretary Rubio's signal on ending Russian oil sanction waivers adds secondary supply-side risk. The Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Russia sustained Neptune-missile-related unit outages, tightening Russian product export capacity. Centrica–Peyto and INEOS–Marubeni long-term LNG offtake deals point to continued European and Asian gas diversification away from Russian supply.